The Once and Future Web
The question is, who will control that new experience? There are a number of contenders, and the nature of HTML itself is changing with the launch earlier this year of the HTML 5 protocol, designed specifically to handle this new dynamism. For producing interactive content, the leader has to be Adobe's Flash, installed in virtually every desktop browser, not to mention being even more security flaw riddled than Microsoft's products - no mean achievement. Adobe isn't guarantee to keep its place in the sun, though. Others have their eye on its space. For instance, Steve Jobs (or if you prefer it Apple, it amounts to the same thing) has refused to allow Flash onto the iPhone and the iPad, thus blocking Adobe's attempt to extend its desktop dominance to the mobile market. Microsoft has it's own ideas about where the web should be going, and they don't include Adobe. Microsoft has its own equivalent of Flash, called Silverlight, but unlike Flash it's mostly confined to the Microsoft desktop. They are hoping that the recently launched Windows 7 phone will take them out into the mobile market place, but, frankly, I have my doubts about the viability of the Windows 7 phone. Apple, of course, have already almost completely re-invented the mobile gadget market with the iPod and then the iPhone and now the iPad. It also introduced iCensorship with its iTunes online shop. I suppose this at least tells us what will be allowed on the web, and what won't, if Apple win this battle! And then, of course there is Google, with its Android operating system, catching up with Apple very rapidly, especially given its later start. Very importantly, Android is an open system with easy access for developers to write new applications for it. A lot of people don't understand the importance of this, but the easy availability of high grade development tools is vital for a thriving eco-system on any given platform. So who will win? Difficult to say. I think Adobe is in the most difficult position. Their problems are similar to Microsoft's, in that they have dominance in their area of the desktop and are trying to leverage that dominance to break into other markets. Microsoft have been trying to do that for fifteen years, but without a great deal of success, and I don't really see Adobe doing a lot better. Microsoft have plenty of cash, but I don't fancy the chances of Windows Phone 7, given the very stiff competition it's up against from Apple and Google. Apple are in an interesting position. It's clear that Steve Jobs runs the company almost as a personal fiefdom. That's actually been very good for Apple shareholders, since the guy is truly a genius at creating new markets and with well designed gadgets. Everyone else is still stuck in the, 'You can have any color you like, as long as it's beige', phase. That's makes Apple a very powerful contender. The problem is Jobs' age and health. The truth is that even if the succession planning is done properly, Jobs is genuinely unique, and, by the same token, irreplaceable. We've already seen what happened when Jobs last left Apple in the mid-1980s. He was lucky there was an Apple to come back to! The remaining contender is Google. Google is a difficult company to grok. It has recently had to take steps to prevent an exodus of key staff (especially from its highly successful Google Maps). If it can't stem this flow it could have real problems. Add to that the fact that most of its income still comes from its role as an advertising broker, and you have yet another company trying to use its dominance in one market to break into other markets. Google is highly innovative, and likely to remain so. It's also not dependant on one figure to drive all its creativity, which may prove to be an advantage in the long run. If I had to make a choice, I would probably go for Google to emerge a winner out of the fray, though whoever wins will not emerge unscathed or a sole winner. This battle isn't just about tech (isn't even about tech, I've heard it suggested), it's also about politics - and politics is about compromise. Politics is also about attempts to control the web/Internet by politicians, and what they are likely to put into the mix will make it highly volatile. And finally, before anyone asks, 'What about Blackberry?' I'll concede that while they may have half of the smart phone market at the moment, I don't think they are in with a look. Their history is a text based messaging phone and I don't think they have the mental outlook, or the creative resources to break out of that and take on the big boys. I foresee a relentless side down the charts for them. RIP.
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