WINDING DOWN
An idiosyncratic look at, and comment on, the week's net and technology news
by Alan Lenton
It's cold here in the Winding Down editorial suite in olde London town - something to do with global warming, I'm assured. This week we had a subway strike on Monday, and during the rest of the week a 'blizzard' deposited multiple millimeters of snow on the ground and, more to the point, on the railway lines.
All the railways promptly ground to a halt. In the case of electric trains it appears that the computer software which runs them won't let them operate in snow and ice. The newspapers were full of the struggles of heroic workers braving millimeter deep snowdrifts to get in to work.
While all this was going on, I was trawling the web for your weekend reading matter, and for once there was plenty of it. However, I got a bit carried away on the piece of analysis I had planned for this issue, so some of the newsy stuff will have to wait till next week!
Analysis: The once and future web
Microsoft, Apple, Google and Adobe are set to do battle royal in the new year over the shape of the web to come. The combination of greatly increased bandwidth, rich media, mobile devices and cloud computing is shifting the web page away from a static text/picture based experience to a more fluid dynamic based experience.
The question is, who will control that new experience? There are a number of contenders, and the nature of HTML itself is changing with the launch earlier this year of the HTML 5 protocol, designed specifically to handle this new dynamism.
For producing interactive content, the leader has to be Adobe's Flash, installed in virtually every desktop browser, not to mention being even more security flaw riddled than Microsoft's products - no mean achievement. Adobe isn't guarantee to keep its place in the sun, though. Others have their eye on its space. For instance, Steve Jobs (or if you prefer it Apple, it amounts to the same thing) has refused to allow Flash onto the iPhone and the iPad, thus blocking Adobe's attempt to extend its desktop dominance to the mobile market.
Microsoft has it's own ideas about where the web should be going, and they don't include Adobe. Microsoft has its own equivalent of Flash, called Silverlight, but unlike Flash it's mostly confined to the Microsoft desktop. They are hoping that the recently launched Windows 7 phone will take them out into the mobile market place, but, frankly, I have my doubts about the viability of the Windows 7 phone.
Apple, of course, have already almost completely re-invented the mobile gadget market with the iPod and then the iPhone and now the iPad. It also introduced iCensorship with its iTunes online shop. I suppose this at least tells us what will be allowed on the web, and what won't, if Apple win this battle!
And then, of course there is Google, with its Android operating system, catching up with Apple very rapidly, especially given its later start. Very importantly, Android is an open system with easy access for developers to write new applications for it. A lot of people don't understand the importance of this, but the easy availability of high grade development tools is vital for a thriving eco-system on any given platform.
So who will win? Difficult to say. I think Adobe is in the most difficult position. Their problems are similar to Microsoft's, in that they have dominance in their area of the desktop and are trying to leverage that dominance to break into other markets. Microsoft have been trying to do that for fifteen years, but without a great deal of success, and I don't really see Adobe doing a lot better.
Microsoft have plenty of cash, but I don't fancy the chances of Windows Phone 7, given the very stiff competition it's up against from Apple and Google.
Apple are in an interesting position. It's clear that Steve Jobs runs the company almost as a personal fiefdom. That's actually been very good for Apple shareholders, since the guy is truly a genius at creating new markets and with well designed gadgets. Everyone else is still stuck in the, 'You can have any color you like, as long as it's beige', phase. That's makes Apple a very powerful contender. The problem is Jobs' age and health. The truth is that even if the succession planning is done properly, Jobs is genuinely unique, and, by the same token, irreplaceable. We've already seen what happened when Jobs last left Apple in the mid-1980s. He was lucky there was an Apple to come back to!
The remaining contender is Google. Google is a difficult company to grok. It has recently had to take steps to prevent an exodus of key staff (especially from its highly successful Google Maps). If it can't stem this flow it could have real problems. Add to that the fact that most of its income still comes from its role as an advertising broker, and you have yet another company trying to use its dominance in one market to break into other markets. Google is highly innovative, and likely to remain so. It's also not dependant on one figure to drive all its creativity, which may prove to be an advantage in the long run.
If I had to make a choice, I would probably go for Google to emerge a winner out of the fray, though whoever wins will not emerge unscathed or a sole winner. This battle isn't just about tech (isn't even about tech, I've heard it suggested), it's also about politics - and politics is about compromise. Politics is also about attempts to control the web/Internet by politicians, and what they are likely to put into the mix will make it highly volatile.
And finally, before anyone asks, 'What about Blackberry?' I'll concede that while they may have half of the smart phone market at the moment, I don't think they are in with a look. Their history is a text based messaging phone and I don't think they have the mental outlook, or the creative resources to break out of that and take on the big boys. I foresee a relentless side down the charts for them. RIP.
[No URLs for this - it's my own views :)]
Shorts:
With Xmas rapidly approaching you might like to take a peek at the Popular Mechanics website, where they've been checking out just how kind the major shipping companies are to your parcels. In conjunction with National Instruments, they made up a package capable of recording acceleration and temperature during a three day trip on each of FedEx, UPS, and USPS. The results make interesting reading (no I'm not going to tell you - go and see for yourself), and no one came out of it unscathed. Mind you, they did better than a similar test in this country some years ago. When the parcel arrived all the measuring instruments were broken from the handling it received while in the tender care of the Post Office.
http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/gadgets/tests/which-shipping-
company-is-kindest-to-your-packages
I see that ASUS are following up their pioneering netbook work with a 9" touch-screen e-book reader. I might well take a close look at this baby, it would fit nicely in my shoulder bag, it has a reasonable screen size, and it's got an e-paper type display which relies on reflective light, unlike Apple's iPad which shines backlight straight into your eyes. I know that reading off a backlit screen for any period of time gives me a headache. And actually, I only want an e-book reader to read with (cue sounds of shocked gasps of horror).
http://www.physorg.com/news/2010-12-asus-eee-reader-world-inch.html
I see that Dmitry Shirokov is suing the law firm of Dunlap, Grubb & Weaver for extortion and fraud. DG&W are the firm that sent threatening letters to thousands of alleged movie downloaders. According to reports the lawsuit is not only dealing with the lawyers themselves, but also accusing the US Copyright Group of being guilty of extortion, fraudulent omissions, mail fraud, wire fraud, computer fraud and abuse, racketeering, fraud upon the court, abuse of process, fraud on the Copyright Office, copyright misuse, unjust enrichment, and consumer protection violations. That's a pretty impressive selection!
http://www.techspot.com/news/41341-torrent-users-sue-us-copyright-
group-for-fraud-and-extortion.html
Homework:
How about a little light relaxation this week, after last week's hard work? (You did finish the lesson on Maxwell's Demon last week, didn't you?). Silicon.com has a set of pictures of NASA's space station computing center - a complete duplicate set of the facilities on board the ISS. In true NASA style they start with the most boring picture - a row of cabinets - but after that it gets more interesting including berthing actuators and a device that simulates the movement of the station. This allows the computer systems that keep the station stable to be tested before they are deployed.
http://www.silicon.com/technology/software/2010/11/29/photos-nasas-space-
station-computing-centre-39746648/
I have two TED videos for you to look at this week. The first is a classic discussion by Jason Fried about why no one gets any work done at work! I can empathize with that, so, I'm sure, will most of my readers (listeners? watchers? multi-media stimulated carbon units?). The other one is a rather amusing little chat from Dan Phillips, talking about unusual houses he's made from reclaimed stuff. Some of the comments are very pointed!
http://www.ted.com/talks/jason_fried_why_work_doesn_t_happen_at_work.html
http://www.ted.com/talks/dan_phillips_creative_houses_from_reclaimed_stuff.html
Oh! And one other thing that you can look at over the next few months, courtesy of NASA. They've installed a web cam in the room where they are building the next Mars Rover! Need I say anything more?
http://www.ustream.tv/nasajpl
Geek Toys:
Not exactly a toy, but if you want to show your co-workers your true level of nerditude in the run up to Xmas, what better way than to tune into Linux Radio which is currently featuring a reading of the Linux kernal. Last time I checked they were reading out the contents of bad_inode.c...
Of course, if you want something, how shall I put it, a little more on the relaxing side, there is always Linux Radio's sister station, White Noise. Suggestions that the latter are actually reading out the source files for the Windows operating system are, I'm assured, a vile calumny...
http://www.linux.fm/
http://www.whitenoise.fm/
If that's not enough, how about an Advent calendar - a Perl Advent Calendar. Just take a look and start clicking on first four boxes. The box for the 5 December wasn't yet open when I just looked, but by the time you get this fine missive, it might well be!
http://perladvent.pm.org/2010/#5/
Scanner:
NYC subway signal inspections falsified
http://www.nypost.com/f/print/news/local/nyc_subway_signal_inspections_
falsified_ZUVA7DheupaPwrjF5yoO4M
Fault in train software leaves them unable to operate in snow and ice
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/8181494/Fault-in-train-software-
leaves-them-unable-to-operate-in-snow-and-ice.html
State pulls the plug on SIPRNet
http://swampland.blogs.time.com/2010/11/29/state-pulls-the-plug-on-siprnet/
Apple forces removal of Steve Jobs action figure
http://www.techdirt.com/articles/20101124/14052912015/apple-forces-
removal-steve-jobs-action-figure.shtml
Acknowledgements
Thanks to readers Barb, Fi, and to Slashdot's daily newsletter for drawing my attention to material used in this issue.
Please send suggestions for stories to alan@ibgames.com and include the words Winding Down in the subject line, unless you want your deathless prose gobbled up by my voracious Spamato spam filter...
Alan Lenton
alan@ibgames.com
5 December, 2010
Alan Lenton is an on-line games designer, programmer and sociologist, the order of which depends on what he is currently working on! His web site is at http://www.ibgames.net/alan.
Past issues of Winding Down can be found at http://www.ibgames.net/alan/winding/index.html.
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